The National Bank of Ukraine in its basic macro forecast provides considerable external financial support in the coming years, especially in 2025. At the same time, the volumes and rates of revenues can vary in both more and less favorable. This is stated in the NBU inflationary report.
According to the forecast, international assistance will remain at a high level, but will gradually decline as the economic situation is normalized. In 2025, Ukraine expects to receive $ 38.4 billion funding, in 2026 - $ 25 billion, and in 2027 - $ 15 billion.
The main part of the financing in 2025 will come through the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans for Ukraine. The rest of the money will be received in the coming years. The regulator notes that some of these funds from the EU and the United Kingdom can be directed to defensive needs.
The peculiarity of the ERA mechanism is that it provides for irreversible assistance, and its repayment will be carried out at the expense of income from immobilized Russian sovereign assets. According to the updated Budget Code, the funds received under this program are not taken into account in the state Borz.
The NBU also notes that international assistance may be increased or postponed earlier. In addition, the losses of Ukraine can be partially offset by the principal amount of frozen Russian assets.
The report stresses that the probability of not receiving the expected financial assistance in 2025 is low, but for the next years the uncertainty level remains high.
