The chances of starting negotiations on Ukraine's membership at the summit in Brussels are assessed as uncertain. According to Leo Litra, a senior analyst at the New Europe Center, there is a high probability that the decision may be postponed until next year.
Litra expressed the opinion that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is actively negotiating with the EU and is ready to compromise, but his firm position may lead to the postponement of this issue until next March.
"I see the possibility of reaching an agreement, but if it fails, it is necessary to take into account that, although it will be a negative signal, it will not be a catastrophe. A refusal to approve a 50 billion euro financing program could be a real crisis, as it is currently extremely important for Ukraine," the analyst explained.
Leo Litra believes that the option, in which Ukraine's financing program will be adopted at the summit without starting negotiations on membership, can serve as an alternative "plan B". Under this scenario, the opening negotiations may be postponed to next year, which, according to the analyst, may be an acceptable compromise for Ukraine.
The EU summit itself, scheduled for December 14-15, should approve an aid package for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros for four years and start negotiations on the possibility of the country joining the EU.
According to Litra, Hungary is ready for a financial compromise, but Viktor Orban remains the main obstacle to the start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the European Union.
