The main purpose of US policy is to prevent the Great War, especially global, similar to that that broke out in the 1930s and can be repeated.
The modern world is very reminiscent of the 1930s. The similarity is that the balance of power is shifting again, and cruel autocratic regimes seek the expansion of their empires. The links between authoritarian states are becoming stronger, and regional conflicts are intertwined. Democracy is threatened both from the outside and from the inside. In the US, again, temptation to take a one -sided course and restraint under the slogan "America above all."
Of course, the parallels are not absolutely accurate. The modern international system is stronger than the one that existed in the 1930s, thanks to the stability provided by US power and alliances. Despite this, none of the crises that have occurred in recent decades - neither the global financial crisis nor the Covid pandemics have led to such levels of uncertainty and radicalism that have arisen as a result of Great Depression.
"Similarly, as the rivalry between the US and China in our time, the First World War arose because of tension between the liberal giant, the United Kingdom, and the non -liberal Eurasian contender, imperial Germany. According to the publication, mistakes and miscalculations, no one really wished it."
"Therefore, the modern imperative is to reduce the tension, to avoid arms race and to limit the likelihood that humanity can" sleep "a catastrophe. It is an analogy that is attractive externally but not very useful."
The First World War did not happen by accident. Its roots can be traced to Germany's behavior, whose strength and ambitions have led to a polycrimination in Europe. In the summer of 1914, Germany risked a major conflict, knowing that this could lead to a continental war. The efforts of the United Kingdom to reduce tensions during this crisis, on the contrary, made the war more likely, giving Berlin a false hope that London will remain away from the conflict.
The history of the First World War differs from the ideas of supporters of this analogy. Modern parallels with the period before World War II look more obvious.
There are symbolic resemblances that cannot be ignored: neo -totalitarian China, which uses concentration camps to depress at an industrial level; neo -fascist Russia, which conducts conquering special operations; Terrorists supported by Iran, who made October 7, 2023, the most fragile day for Jews since the Holocaust.
Although the expansion of these revisionists is currently modest compared to the villains of the 1930s and 1940s, their crimes are not yet equal to crimes under the guidance of the "new order" of Adolf Hitler or the "sphere of prosperity of Great East Asia" of Imperial Japan. However, this may be because modern auditors have to act in an environment where American power prevailed for a long time. How much could be the consequences if aggressive autocractions were less restrained? The most important lesson that we can take from history before World War II is that the study of the past allows us to avoid repetition of events.
The first lesson follows that the international order can be destroyed with destructive speed and care. Looking back, we see what happened in the 1930s. The breakdown of regional order has led to a global safety crisis. Modes built on the ideology of violence have made some of the most horrific landing of land in history. However, even if most democratic leaders realized that the "bad wind" was blowing, few people predicted how strong the storm would be.
Russia's behavior in Ukraine since 2014 has demonstrated how a limited invasion of foreign territory could develop into an attempt to destroy the whole people. Recent events in the Middle East try to us how even an economically weak revisionist Iran can mobilize proxy-seles capable of deepening chaos in the region. In East Asia, China carries out the greatest increase in military power in history since World War II ", as one American Admiral says. These countries do not hide their goal to turn the structure of the world that has long been provided with the US authorities.
The second lesson reminds us that even an ambivalent union of totalitarian regimes can lead to the destruction of the world. National Germany, imperial Japan and fascist Italy have never had mutual trust in each other. They were mainly united by the appetite to the world ownership. As historian Williamson Murray noted, "they were united by the desire to steal as much as possible." If they succeeded, their ambitions and the racist beliefs that they were guided, do not know where the world would lead.
Modern revisionists have no common goals except for non -liberal rule and dissatisfaction with American power. This is enough for them to cooperate and have negative consequences. "Russia has accelerated China's military growth by selling advanced aircraft, missiles and air defense systems, as well as with shadow technological partnerships that are intended to accelerate the development of mysterious opportunities. Iran and North Korea supported the conflict of Ukrainian Russia by selling her drones, artillery and rocket. Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, the autocratic order they have established in the Central Eurasia allows them to penetrate more persistently into neighboring regions. Putin can lead his army against Ukraine because he does not feel the threat from China. The consequences of such interaction should not be underestimated. If Russia precedes China's most sensitive technologies for the muffle of submarines, it can destroy the underwater balance in the western Pacific. If Moscow strengthens its troops in Europe during the Asia-American confrontation, Washington will be in crisis on several fronts. The purpose of US policy should be to prevent the Great War, especially the Global War, which exploded in the 1930s and which can be repeated if Europe, the Middle East and Asia will be covered by the conflict at the same time.
The best way to prevent war is to prepare for its effective conduct, and the requirements of any major conflict can be very serious. American officials should listen to the third lesson: use the wars of other countries to prepare for your own.
President Joe Biden expressed the view that the United States should become a "Arsenal of Democracy" for Israel and Ukraine. However, the defensive industrial base of America is currently imperfect and vulnerable, which leads to the fact that the United States is almost produced by artillery and other weapons needed by Ukraine to fight Russia, not to mention the missiles of a long -range radius, ships and submarines that are important to Ukraine in the case of Ukraine.
However, for the country with world commitments, the answer is to use the fact that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have been shown. This includes the use of a weak defense industrial base to stimulate a larger re -equipment program and expand the overall production capabilities of America. Assistance to Ukraine, equivalent to approximately 5% of the US defense budget, may seem expensive. However, will it be cheaper to see Ukraine victorious and then encounter a vindictive, mobilized Russia in the east?
After all, the preservation of global order is a collective task, but without US participation it will not be achieved. As the Second World War showed and the next Cold War, only consistent use of force by the United States can create conditions in which humanity will reach new levels of prosperity, since the worst forms of aggression will be restrained.
The main difference between Munich in 1938 and today's Ukraine in 2022 was American leadership. Without the help of the US, Kiev would undoubtedly be defeated, sooner or late, and separated Europe may have preferred to put up rather than resistant Russia.
