The debt of the population of Ukraine on loans reached UAH 159 billion - this is 39% more than a year earlier. The National Bank notes that the bulk of this amount is unsecured loans, including the use of credit limits on cards. But is such growth really a sign of economic recovery?
On the one hand, consumer lending is traditionally considered the economy. Thanks to loans, citizens can consume more - it stimulates trade, production, creation of new jobs. On the other hand, excessive constriction carries risks to the entire financial system, especially in low income.
Reducing cash circulation and increasing the popularity of bank cards is another factor that affects the economy. According to Moody's research, the use of payment cards in 70 countries between 2015–2019 has added $ 245 billion to global GDP and created about 2.1 million jobs a year. On average, each increase in non -cash operations by 1% gave a 0.01% increase in GDP. More than 117 million payment cards have been registered in Ukraine today, although less than half - about 53 million are active. With the development of banking from Ukrposhta, about 30% of the population, which still remained out of the financial system, will be accessed from the Cards. Experts emphasize that although consumer loans are able to revive the economy in the short term, in the long run - they can slow down it. In particular, debt service costs reduce consumer activity in the future. The study of the Bank of International Settlements shows that when the credit load is reached more than 60% of GDP, the lending effect becomes negative. In the United States, for example, the total debt of households is about 61% of GDP - on the verge of balance. In 2008, when this figure reached 86%, it led to a financial crisis.
In Ukraine, the current level of debt of individuals (UAH 159 billion) is only a little more than 2% of GDP - it is an extremely low indicator, which indicates a high potential for growth without significant risks in the near future. Several major Ukrainian banks have confirmed the Ministry of Finance that actively increase credit limits. In the PUMB, the maximum limit increased to 300 thousand UAH, in Raiffeisen - to 500 thousand UAH. In Unex Bank, the limit doubled in a year and reached 200 thousand UAH.
This testifies not only to banks' confidence in customers, but also to change the strategy: instead of a careful approach after the 2014–2015 crisis, financial institutions are now more active in stimulating consumption through lending.
Ukraine is still a significant potential for increasing consumer lending volumes without sacrificing the economy. The real risks appear only when debts are out of control or are not accompanied by an adequate increase in income. In the meantime, the volume of debt is only 2% of GDP, loans are more fuel for the economy than a burden.
