The enemy forces plan to increase their presence in the occupied territories of Ukraine from Kinburn to Donetsk and from Avdiivka to Vovchansk. What is the decision?
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Alexander Sirsky, reported in an interview with The Guardian that Russia intends to significantly increase its grouping in Ukraine by the end of 2024 to 690 thousand military. This news has caused concern among Ukrainians, but it is worth considering what this increase means.
Over the last two and a half years, the composition of the Russian occupation troops has changed. In 2022, at the time of a full-scale invasion, Russia attracted 180,000 soldiers, in December 2023, their number increased to 450 thousand, and in the first half of 2024-to 530 thousand. Despite the significant increase in numbers, it did not allow the Russians to effectively capture new territories.
In 2022, Russian troops had a significant advantage in professional personnel and equipment, which allowed them to capture 63.9 thousand square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. However, in 2023 they were able to capture only 683 km², and in the first half of 2024 - 752 km². This indicates that an increase in the number of military does not always lead to success without proper technical support.
Now the Russian army is faced with a shortage of equipment and professional military personnel. Despite the fact that the number of military people has increased significantly, the quality of their equipment and preparation leaves much to be desired. The Russian military-industrial complex is not able to provide the army with the necessary equipment, which leads to a critical deficit.
Increasing the number of Russian troops without proper provision of equipment will not have a positive effect for the occupiers. They face a closed circle: an increase in the number of military requires more equipment that they do not have. This deficit of technology is trying to compensate for the human resource, which only aggravates the situation.
The Russian command is not able to significantly influence the production of new equipment. They cannot produce new tanks and combat vehicles in the right amount, which only enhances their dependence on human resources. In 2024, Russia will face critical problems in providing its troops with equipment.
Thus, the increase in the number of occupation troops to 690 thousand is not a sign of preparation for a large -scale offensive, but rather an attempt to keep the captured territories. This testifies to the despair of the Russian command, which hopes to use live force as a shield against the counterattack of Ukrainian troops in 2025.
Russia has the opportunity to mobilize so many military, but it will require an announcement of partial or complete mobilization. However, this can cause internal resistance and dissatisfaction among the Russian population.
The increase in the number of troops without proper provision of equipment will not change the course of combat and will not lead to significant success. Ukraine should be ready to continue the struggle for the liberation of its territories, holding its head with cold and keeping sobriety in difficult conditions.
