According to the publication, an alternative to a peace agreement with Putin may be a freezing of a Korean scenario. Journalists emphasize that after the division of the Korean peninsula into two states, South Korea has achieved economic success.
Ukraine is entering the New Year, faced with a lack of ammunition, finance and diplomatic support. However, the main reason for these problems is the lack of a clear victory strategy in the country and its allies. This deficit of success theory is asked to be as follows the sustainability of Ukraine's support by Western countries. About it writes the British newspaper Financial Times.
The publication notes that the current situation contrasts completely with the optimism inherent in the beginning of the year. At the beginning, Ukrainian and Western supporters were clear how to achieve victory. The plan was to start the offensive, break Russian lines and threaten Crimea in the hope of forced peace talks. Some hoped for this, others - for Putin's fall.
"But the counter -offensive failed - and neither" hawk "nor" pigeons "never saw the embodiment of their theory of victory in life," - says FT.
According to British journalists, prospects for 2024 seem to be disappointing. Journalists say that the Ukrainian armed forces are already faced with a shortage of ammunition. The EU and the US are barely consistent with new military assistance. The promises of support "as much as needed" are beginning to turn into restrictions.
"Without new money, the situation of Ukraine on the battlefield can deteriorate rapidly. In Moscow, Putin has already begun to say that without support from outside Ukraine is waiting for a crash," FT emphasizes.
Journalists may suggest that 2024 will be a year when Russia will return to the offensive if Western aid is not sufficient. However, even if the war remains in a dead end, time may be on the side of Russia. Both sides see that the western support of Ukraine is fragile. Russia suffered horrible losses, but Ukraine, with its population several times smaller, has also been injured.
Domestic policy, including the US presidential election, makes Americans become less interested in supporting Ukraine. After the failure of the counter -offensive, skepticism appeared in Ukraine's prospects.
The publication notes that without a convincing plan of victory, pressure on Ukraine will only increase for negotiations with Russia. Ukraine could make concessions if it was confident in compliance with Russia's arrangements. But experience shows that any agreements with Russia can be violated.
"But Ukrainian officials can cite a number of agreements that Putin concluded and then violated. They believe that any cessation of hostilities will be simply used by Russia as an opportunity to be re-armed," FT writes.
Frozen conflict
An alternative could be a freezing of the conflict before a full peace agreement, which provides for a truce. Within this agreement, the parties stop hostilities but do not resolve key political issues. An example here is the completion of the Korean War and the further division of the peninsula into North and South Korea, notes the publication.
"The South Korean model also points to a possible new victory theory for Ukraine. As soon as the fighting in Korea stopped, the South Koreans were able to focus on the restoration of their economy - and achieved great success," FT writes.
With this variant of events, it is extremely important that Ukraine retains access to the Black Sea and controls the Odessa Sea Commercial Port.
"He [Kiev] also received green light at the beginning of negotiations on EU accession, which should be combined with an increase in financial and technical assistance to start the process of restoration of the economy," FT added.
The publication notes that even the most active supporters of Ukraine in the West now have a voice that Kiev should recognize a frozen conflict and declare its victory.
"We need to change the world perception and say that Putin has failed," says one former American official.
Indeed, in this conflict, the results for Russia were much less favorable than many analysts hoped at the beginning of a full -scale invasion in February 2022, FT writes.
"The Russians were humiliating in the battle for Kiev. Putin sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives for the sake of minor territorial achievements. And in Russia - for the first time in many centuries - there are virtually no allies on the European continent," the article reads.
Unlike Russia, journalists say, Ukraine now enjoys immense international support and respect. Although the country has paid a high price for this war, its status of an independent state with its own proud culture and identity will never be questioned.
"In a great story, it is a victory that really has a meaning," FT sums up.
