The NBU is currently taking effective measures so that the liberalization of the foreign exchange market is not accompanied by sharp exchange rate changes. Will the abolition of a fixed exchange rate on the cost of housing in the primary market will affect?
“The“ managed flexibility ”regime retains the NBU's possibility of tactical measures aimed at meeting the demand for currency. Therefore, it is expected that in the next month the permissible break of interbank and cash exchange rates is unlikely to be more than 1%, and the expected currency corridor will be maintained within 38-39.5 UAH.
It should be reminded that pricing in the primary housing market is based on the US dollar, which in the context of the foreign exchange market consolidation will not affect the value of M2. And given the rather low demand and objective conditions of war, during the second half of October and November, global changes in the cost of housing in the primary market are unlikely.
As in the 9 months of 2023, demand is maximum ⅓ from pre -war level. And in the overall ratio with the existing offer is only 15-20%. And in the near future the growth of demand is unlikely.
However, the available demand is unevenly distributed: more than 70% of buyers are interested in apartments in already built houses, or in the LCD or individual queues of the LCD in the final stages of construction (with a level of readiness from 70% and expected commissioning by the end of the first half of 2024).
There are several important factors that affect the level of demand:
location with maximum security against possible missile attacks and "chess" attacks (western regions of the country, as well as cities with maximum air defense efficiency);
the quality of the construction object (object class, surface, used building materials, infrastructure objects created, recreational potential, etc.);
Price and area of apartments (the most in demand are houses from 40 m2 to 70 m2);
Methods of purchase (developed flexible installments, availability of joint mortgage programs with commercial banks, discounts and offers);
Renom Developer: Construction activity, despite complicated military conditions, openness and democratic compassion for investors who invested funds before the start of a large -scale invasion.
In general, the development of the primary market is not a delusion, because the construction of new buildings is ongoing. In addition, new quality projects appear on the market, including service apartments that can eventually occupy a niche of rent. However, the full development of the market is possible after the onset of the Ukrainian victory. It depends on the systematic restoration of Ukraine, the arrival of strong foreign investors, the development of real estate investment funds.
