The European Union has stopped discussing the possibility of confiscation of frozen Russian assets worth more than 200 billion euros. This decision has been made under the pressure of several EU countries that refer to risks to the financial market and the rules of European legislation.
It looks logical in terms of economics, but how safe is it in terms of geopolitics? The refusal to confiscate assets can cause Russia to simply wait for its time. If a truce comes in Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be able to accumulate resources, and in a year or two Europe may be a much more serious threat. Assuming that the fighting will cease in the spring of 2025, by May 2026 Russia can increase: up to 1500 tanks, up to 2000 rockets of different types, up to 24,000 shock drones, up to 480,000 new soldiers. This means that a year and a half after the truce, Russia will have a huge capable army with advanced experience, while European countries are not yet ready for a great war.
Instead of worrying about the financial market, Europe should be preparing for a real threat: to scale weapons and ammunition. Strengthen the eastern borders. Teach the population. Translate the defense industry into mode 24/7.
Some countries already understand this: Poland, Baltic States, Northern Europe, France and Germany have started active training. But the rest of Europe is still in captivity of illusions. However, the clock is already ticking. If you do not make the right decisions right now, then it will not be necessary to confiscate the assets, but the territory.
