In the modern world, where wars have taken new forms and methods, the use of terms belonging to the past can seem to be anachronism. Yes, "Black Swan" is a concept that denotes rare and unpredictable events, it is extremely difficult to adapt to the realities of the 21st century. Instead, you can use the term "black aircraft" by suggesting being more relevant. And, oddly enough, this definition is great for describing the current events that struck the world.
It can be said that Russia has long been on the path of beating civilian aircraft - a phenomenon that has far -reaching consequences. One of the most resonant cases was the killing of the Malaysian flight MH17 in 2014. This tragedy not only became a major humanitarian catastrophe, but also forced the Kremlin to postpone its plans for full -scale aggression against Ukraine, to which our country was much less prepared at that time. Although the crime remained almost without punishment, its consequences for the geopolitical situation became obvious in a few years. Now on the agenda, a new incident is the crashing of the Azerbaijani aircraft, which creates the preconditions for a new wave of geopolitical changes. It is not just another act of aggression from Russia - it is a signal for Turkey to strengthen its offensive in the Caucasus and consistently squeezed Russia from this strategic territory. And this is just the beginning.
It is important to note that the main problem is not only the crash of the aircraft, but also the response of Russia to these events. The Kremlin behaves inadequate, often demonstrating helplessness and cowardice in such situations. For example, the reaction of President Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to an incident with a plane shows that countries that could previously ignore such provocations are now ready to act and react much more decisively. It shifts the balance of power in the region and makes it clear that Russia will have to deal with the consequences of its actions.
Unfortunately, the consequences of such tragedies are not immediately manifested. Each shocked "black plane" is not only the death of innocent people, but also an increase in the number of crimes committed by Putin's regime. And it is no longer possible to hide: crimes accumulate and can eventually lead to significant political and legal consequences. With each such incident, the Kremlin accumulates criminal acts that will sooner or later lead to international criminal liability. This will inevitably be a matter of time when the number of crimes committed by Russia will exceed the possibility of the regime to avoid responsibility. And when this moment comes, justice will not stop.
The killing of civilian planes by Russia is not just an act of aggression. These are milestones on a geopolitical map that change the situation in the world. Although the consequences often do not appear immediately, we can already observe how the consequences of these crimes are not only the direct culprits, but also everyone who stands behind them. Gradually, this process is gaining strength, and now we can predict that it will be one of the reasons why the Kremlin will be forced to get out of its course if it is not possible to avoid international legal responsibility.
