Kyiv urgently demands from the West not only an increase in military aid , but also the provision of security guarantees - however, apart from silence, it does not hear anything in response, and this is quite understandable, says Polish Ambassador Jerzy Marek Nowakowski.
In an interview with Wirtualna Polska, he explains that there is still neither social nor political agreement on this issue in the West: no one wants to agree to any guarantees while fighting continues in Ukraine. After all, in this case, the risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO increases.
During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly called for increased aid to Ukraine , and also made it clear that he expects security guarantees from the West. However, at the moment it is extremely difficult to talk about any serious guarantees for Kyiv.
The former ambassador of Poland to Latvia and Armenia, as well as the head of the Euro-Atlantic Association, Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska, admits that, "unfortunately," such an idea exists. The diplomat refers to the publication Foreign Affairs, which published an article in which it was mentioned that some concessions were necessary.
"Security guarantees can be formulated only under the condition of at least some kind of ceasefire . Otherwise, security guarantees would mean joining the war," he explains.
In the interview, Novakovsky emphasizes that he is not surprised that Kiev's persistent demand for security guarantees is met with silence.
"The issue is not a lack of ideas at all. This is responsibility for words. If we provide such guarantees, it will be just a piece of paper. We will give guarantees and watch from the side as Ukrainians are attacked," the diplomat explains.
According to him, if it came to a strategic break, then it would be necessary to
carefully prepare the promises given to Ukraine earlier, however, in the future, any escalation of the conflict would become an almost direct clash between Russia and NATO. At the same time, he has no doubts that at some point Russia will be forced to take a "break", and this time can be used to somehow consolidate Ukraine in the West.
Wirtualna Polska reminds that last Friday Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Prime Minister of Great Britain Rishi Sunak signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of security between the two countries in Kyiv.
According to Novakovsky, the British guarantees are too general.
"They want to present themselves as a support leader. However, I am afraid that these guarantees are much weaker than the ones they gave us in August 1939," the diplomat states. "These are not guarantees, but a declaration of close cooperation. This is definitely a step in the right direction. However, this is not a guarantee of safety," he emphasizes.
Nowakovsky is sure that it is premature for the West to give any guarantees to Kyiv.
"What guarantees can we give when Ukraine is at war with Russia?", the diplomat asks. "Security guarantees mean that we are stepping in to support an ally. But since it has already been attacked, the logical consequence would be the sending of Polish, American or other soldiers to Ukraine. However, there is no social or political agreement for this yet," he explains.
"We will have to wait until this war ends or is resolved, and only then think about such guarantees," Novakovsky urges.
He suggests approaching this issue carefully and formulating guarantees in such a way that they have a deterrent nature.
