What is more important for the European Union: Ukraine joining the bloc or European farmers?
The EU has been reluctant to say much publicly about accepting new members amid angry farmers who stage sometimes violent protests across the continent.
Farmers say they are stuck in a battle competing with cheap imports from outside the bloc, many of which come from Ukraine. They also say they are shocked by higher-than-normal fuel prices, as well as Brussels' environmental regulations.
So for now, European leaders are handing out concessions to appease angry farmers. On Monday evening, EU countries agreed to impose restrictions on the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products, dealing a significant blow to their exports. During a meeting of 27 government representatives, France came out in support of Poland, demanding restrictions on imports of Ukrainian poultry, eggs, sugar and wheat, two people familiar with the discussion Brussels Playbook
Asked why they gave in, senior officials accused their leaders of fearing that farmers' protests could fuel new populist parties such as BBB in the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, European leaders are keeping talk of enlargement to a minimum, especially given that EU elections are just three months away.
And some EU officials told POLITICO that they would prefer to keep secret the work to prepare for the eventual integration of Ukraine, Moldova and a number of Western Balkan countries — especially the side effects it would have on farmers.
"Let's be honest: nobody wants to talk about this [enlargement] before the European elections," said one EU official who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak freely.
"Talk of reducing subsidies for European farmers is not something you want to put on your campaign slogans - or give as electoral ammunition to the far-right," the official added, referring to European Parliament elections in June.
Nevertheless, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who is running for a second term, promised to prepare a bloc for Ukraine. In her State of the Union address last September, von der Leyen said the issue needed to be resolved "today if we want to be ready for tomorrow".
She added: "It is time for Europe to think big again and create its own destiny."
The task facing the EU in the field of enlargement is Herculean, especially with regard to Ukraine.
War-torn Ukraine with almost 44 million people will become the bloc's largest territory. Given its population, Kyiv would have significant influence in the European Parliament and the Council of the EU.
When Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, it will have one of the lowest GDPs. That would put a serious strain on the bloc's cohesion policy — funding that flows from richer regions to poorer ones. According to an internal memo of the Council of the EU last fall, Ukraine's integration into the bloc could mean that within seven years the country will receive about 186 billion euros of EU funds.
Future enlargement will mean that all current EU countries "will have to pay more and get less", the document clearly states. The block decided that preparations for the final integration of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the six countries of the Western Balkans should be carried out within the country, and not in the public eye.
After all, it is impossible to accept new EU members without intra-European reforms, said Kai-Olaf Lang from the think tank of the German Institute for International Affairs and Security Affairs.
That's not what European farmers want to hear, as they descend on Brussels for another round of protests as the EU's 27 heads of government meet in Brussels this Thursday.
For now, they don't have to worry.
When European leaders meet this week to discuss enlargement — among other things — at their summit, they will hardly touch on their domestic homework on enlargement. EU leaders are simply going to "take stock" of what needs to be done, according to the latest draft of the meeting's conclusions seen by POLITICO.
Nervousness in the ranks of the commission
At the end of February, the Commission was due to publish a communication on the reform before the enlargement. That didn't happen, and the draft was heavily watered down, three other EU officials said .
Several countries have asked the Commission to focus less on financial implications and future institutional reforms, one EU diplomat added.
The message is planned to be published on Wednesday, the day after it was to be discussed by European affairs ministers.
"You can sense a lot of nervousness about this document within the ranks of the Commission," said the diplomat above. "Of course, the pre-election period doesn't help."
Elections to the European Parliament complicate the issue, Lang said. "Those in favor of enlargement may fear that they will open a debate on reforms ... that could mobilize opponents of a closer EU," referring to Hungary.
Hungary has blocked talks about EU support for Ukraine in exchange for unfreezing cash. It was only when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán left the room during the EU Council meeting in December that the 26 other leaders were able to take the initial steps towards Ukraine's accession.
Some countries are growing impatient, calling for more to be done for enlargement, especially as the Commission moved in March to open the bloc to potential new members such as Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Enlargement processes and internal reforms must go hand in hand," said Thiago Antunes, Portugal's secretary of state for European affairs, whose country is pushing for reform within the EU.
"We are really waiting for this message from the Commission and we have high hopes. It is necessary to discuss the reforms necessary to prepare the new member states for joining the Union."
But the real debate should take place after the European elections, diplomats and officials say.
At the end of June, European leaders will sign the so-called strategic agenda of the next European Commission, in particular, intra-European reform.
Poland, which will take over the rotating presidency of the EU Council in 2025, is expected to begin laying the groundwork for enlargement.
"We have time," said another EU diplomat. "It is not that Ukraine will join the EU tomorrow."
