The conflict between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky in the White House again exacerbated the issue of Ukraine's future security and the possible departure of the United States from Europe's military support.
According to The Times, if the United States ceases to help Kiev and review their role in NATO, Europe will have to take on a huge burden of defense. Europe's armed forces will not be able to compensate for the departure of US troops - this will require 300,000 servicemen. The EU defensive costs should increase by 200 billion euros a year, which will be an unprecedented financial challenge. European countries are already providing Ukraine with more assistance than the US but do not have sufficient production facilities to rapidly build up military support. " Europe produces 2 million artillery shells a year, but this is not enough even for the current needs of the war," says Mark Galeotti.
Putin is not afraid of Europe because she believes that she has neither political unity nor military will to confront. European armies cannot exhibit 100,000-150,000 soldiers whom Zelensky considers necessary to restrain the Russian Federation. Even the most powerful EU armies, such as Polish, set national security priorities. ”Even if the EU agrees to spend more, it has no production capacity to quickly turn these funds into real military potential,” Galeotti writes. Losing US support means the lack of new Patriot, Abrams and Bradley systems. Spare parts and ammunition for available systems will also be scarce. It is possible to reduce the conscript age in Ukraine from 25 to 18 years to increase mobilization reserves.
Ukraine is likely to continue the fight, but it is increasingly disadvantageous to itself if the event does not find alternative ways of support.
